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Inferential Models Reasoning with Uncertainty

Inferential Models Reasoning with Uncertainty

A New Approach to Sound Statistical ReasoningInferential Models: Reasoning with Uncertainty introduces the authors’ recently developed approach to inference: the inferential model (IM) framework. This logical framework for exact probabilistic inference does not require the user to input prior information. The authors show how an IM produces meaningful prior-free probabilistic inference at a high level. The book covers the foundational motivations for this new IM approach the basic theory behind its calibration properties a number of important applications and new directions for research. It discusses alternative meaningful probabilistic interpretations of some common inferential summaries such as p-values. It also constructs posterior probabilistic inferential summaries without a prior and Bayes’ formula and offers insight on the interesting and challenging problems of conditional and marginal inference. This book delves into statistical inference at a foundational level addressing what the goals of statistical inference should be. It explores a new way of thinking compared to existing schools of thought on statistical inference and encourages you to think carefully about the correct approach to scientific inference. | Inferential Models Reasoning with Uncertainty

GBP 44.99
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A History of Modern Germany 1871 to Present

A History of Modern Germany 1871 to Present

A History of Modern Germany is a well-established text that presents a balanced survey of the last 150 years of German history stretching from nineteenth-century imperial Germany through political division and reunification and into the present day. Beginning in the early 1870s and covering topics such as Wilhelmenian Germany the World Wars revolution inflation and putsches the Weimar Republic the Federal Republic and the German Democratic Republic the book offers a comprehensive overview of the entire period of modern German history. Fully updated throughout this new edition details foreign policy political and economic history and includes increased coverage of social and cultural history and history ‘from the bottom up’ as well as containing a new chapter that brings it right up to the present day. The book is supported by full discussion of past and present historiographic debates illustrations maps further readings and biographies of key German political economic and cultural figures within the Im Mittelpunkt feature. Fully exploring the complicated path of Germany’s troubled past and stable present A History of Modern Germany provides the perfect grounding for all students of German history. | A History of Modern Germany 1871 to Present

GBP 82.99
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Twentieth Century Town Halls Architecture of Democracy

Twentieth Century Town Halls Architecture of Democracy

This is the first book to examine the development of the town hall during the twentieth century and the way in which these civic buildings have responded to the dramatic political social and architectural changes which took place during the period. Following an overview of the history of the town hall as a building type it examines the key themes variations and lessons which emerged during the twentieth century. This is followed by 20 case studies from around the world which include plans sections and full-colour illustrations. Each of the case studies examines the town hall's procurement the selection of its architect and the building design and critically analyses its success and contribution to the type’s development. The case studies include:Copenhagen Town Hall Denmark Martin NyropStockholm City Hall Sweden Ragnar OstbergHilversum Town Hall the Netherlands Willem M. DudokWalthamstow Town Hall Britain Philip Dalton HepworthOslo Town Hall Norway Arnstein Arneberg and Magnus PoulssonCasa del Fascio Como Italy Guiseppe TerragniAarhus Town Hall Denmark Arne Jacobsen with Eric MollerSaynatsalo Town Hall Finland Alvar AaltoKurashiki City Hall Japan Kenzo TangeToronto City Hall Canada Viljo RevellBoston City Hall USA Kallmann McKinnell and KnowlesDallas City Hall USA IM PeiMississauga City Hall Canada Ed Jones and Michael KirklandBorgoricco Town Hall Italy Aldo RossiReykjavik City Hall Iceland Studio GrandaValdelaguna Town Hall Spain Victor Lopez Cotelo and Carlos Puente FernandezThe Hague City Hall the Netherlands Richard MeierIragna Town Hall Switzerland Raffaele CavadiniMurcia City Hall Spain Jose Rafael MoneoLondon City Hall UK Norman Foster | Twentieth Century Town Halls Architecture of Democracy

GBP 69.99
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Womankind Beyond the Stereotypes

Womankind Beyond the Stereotypes

A stereotype can be defined as a rendering by consensus. Since WOMANKIND: BEYOND THE STEREOTYPES first appeared in 1971 a turbulent decade has passed. In launching a new edition after such an interval it seems appropriate to ask how far society has moved: be-yond the stereotypes. Such motion is a critical gauge of the status of women for the power to define can also be the power to destroy; as long as the second sex is culturally prepackaged its biographical destiny will be preprogrammed and perilous. Looking backward then to 1971 it is clear that the liberation movement has affected consciousness; it has even subverted received doctrine. On the other hand the stereotypes have not disappeared; they have simply gone underground. At the explicit level one can point to new patterns; at the implicit level traditional definitions persist and continue to be both determinative and destructive. Actualizing the architecture of this book I set out to examine fixed positions related to a) stereotypes of role and b) assumptions of thought. In this edition I have added a section called Interpenetrations where I undertake to analyze in terms of current metamorphosis what has hap-pened in the private and in the public spheres. The chapter entitled Sex and Gender deals with the characteristic interweaving of present im-peratives and past prototypes in relation to biography. The chapter en-titled The Politics of Power deals with the same characteristic inter-weaving in relation to history. In a transitional period transformation proceeds unevenly: old and new are a continuing part of contemporary reality. In sum I have attempted to harmonize what is unprecedented with what is familiar and to dissect meaningful strands from the tangle of paradoxical precepts. Embarking on such venturesome thought I have been mindful of the caveat of Jacob Bronowski: If today we want to find relief from the uncertainties of a changing world in some cozy arbitrary doctrine then we had better face the likelihood that tomorrow the Dark Ages will return. | Womankind Beyond the Stereotypes

GBP 84.99
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